* $65 billion as of 06/30/10.
After stronger-than-expected data kicked off the year, the U.S. economy has entered a soft patch over the
past few months. However, we think the prospect of a double dip is low. We expect the economic recovery
to be subdued but sustained, with stocks and other risky assets moving higher on a six- to 12-month horizon,
though a volatile summer trading range appears likely. Therefore we have taken some risk off the table and
reduced the size of some of our active positions. We currently maintain a neutral stance on stocks versus bonds.
A better tone to the economic data in the U.S. and increased quantitative easing by the European Central Bank (ECB)
would be among the signals we would look for to become more aggressive again.
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Why Have Estimate Revision Measures not Worked in Recent Years
(Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2008)
An alpha indicator can lose its efficacy if too many investors use it in their trading decisions. Thus, a robust alpha factor model should consider how much of the information in a signal may already be reflected in stock prices.
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