Research & Publications

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Analysts' Earnings Forecast, Recommendation, and Target Price Revisions

(Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2012) This study examines the immediate and delayed market responses to revisions in analyst forecasts of earnings, target prices, and recommendations. Consistent with prior literature, revisions in earnings forecasts are positively and significantly associated with short-term market returns around the revisions. However, we show that short-term market returns around target price revisions and recommendation changes are even stronger. We also find superior future performance (return drift) for portfolios that use information from all three types of revisions to those using information from only one of the three types of revisions.

(1540 KB)

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Why Have Estimate Revision Measures Not Worked in Recent Years

(Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2008) An alpha indicator can lose its efficacy if too many investors use it in their trading decisions. Thus, a robust alpha factor model should consider how much of the information in a signal may already be reflected in stock prices.

(650 KB)

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Does Relaxing the Long-Only Constraint Increase the Downside Risk of Portfolio Alphas?

(The Journal of Investing, Spring 2007) In a well-diversified portfolio, relaxing the long-only constraint should not increase the downside risk of portfolio alphas. This is likely even if the underlying stock selection strategy has a bias toward stocks with negatively skewed returns.

(832 KB)

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Some Insider Sales Are Positive Signals

(Financial Analysts Journal, May/June 2004) Not all insider sales are the same. The percentage of shares owned by insiders is useful for predicting future returns following insider purchases.

(446 KB)

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Enhanced Equity Indexers: Common Traits and Surprising Differences

(Journal of Investment Management, Fall 2003) All enhanced managers control tracking error by diversifying and controlling factors exposures. Once these variables are controlled, the excess returns of these managers have remarkably low correlations, even among those following seemingly similar strategies.

(218 KB)

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Overconfidence Bias in International Stock Prices

(Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter 2003) Might investor overconfidence systematically bias stock prices and create investment opportunities across different countries and different cultures? Valuation theory is used to suggest where such biases are most likely to occur.

(283 KB)

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News, Not Trading Volume, Builds Momentum

(Financial Analysts Journal, March/April 2003) Though recent research regarding trading volume suggests the existence of an exploitable deviation from market efficiency, we show that, after earnings-related news and a stock's growth rate have been controlled for, the interaction between momentum and volume largely disappears.

(881 KB)

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Behavioral Bias, Valuation, and Active Management

(Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 1999) A probe of the consequences of behavioral biases in the context of valuation theory.

(381 KB)