As 2016 winds to a close, many investors are now nervously eyeing the US Federal Reserve’s December open market committee meeting as the most likely timing of its first interest rate hike in a year. Some fear a less accommodative Fed could soon be the proverbial straw that breaks the back of a market currently trading at Price to Earnings of around 20 times trailing earnings. The concern is rooted in established theories that interest rates are negatively correlated with high stock price multiples. But is this right? QMA’s paper upends the conventional wisdom about the relationship between interest rates and equity valuations. Our analysis of the past 150 years of data shows that low rates are supportive of high valuations up to a point, after which further low rates are actually associated with depressed P/Es.
QMA offers ongoing market commentary and research to help guide investors. Please contact us if you would like to learn more about any of these topics.
QMA InsightsQMA Insights
Recently, there has been a movement away from active management. The low fees charged by passive vehicles, coupled with the perception of poor performance by active managers, have been the primary drivers for this shift. In today’s low-return environment, investors continue to be sensitive to the impact of fees on performance. In QMA's paper, Passive and Active Fulfillment Choices, we discuss the performance characteristics of different types of US active equity managers in the large-cap space and examine the advantages of combining a quant approach with indexing. We also consider the implications for investors in target date funds and how these fulfillment choices impact retirement savings and income.
There is a widely held view that we are in a lower return environment with single digit returns on the horizon for equity markets. In these times, any additional return is particularly valuable. Active extension, equity long-short, and equity market neutral products can be attractive for investors at any particular time, given investors' varied investment objectives and needs. That said, each of the three categories of shorting-enabled products can help address distinct issues facing investors today. QMA’s new paper describes how short selling allows investors to find alpha in often overlooked places, explains the three main categories of shorting-enabled equity products, and highlights the benefits of a systematic quantitative process.
For the average US worker, the goal of investing is to build a source of retirement income. One of the appeals of target date funds is the reassuring certainty communicated by success probabilities, and for plan sponsors, it is a critical measure during the selection and monitoring process. Although an important metric, success probabilities should not be taken as the final word on lifecycle investing. To be compelling, a success probability must be updated regularly to reflect the evolving participant makeup and changing economic environments. Jeremy Stempien looks at how the probability of success is measured and its relationship to the choice of expected return inputs, examines the sensitivity of income expectations to different return assumptions, and finally considers the outlook for asset class returns.
The recent turmoil in global financial markets was caused by a number of market events and systemic factors. A top contender is China, but so too are Emerging Markets, due to their existing structural limitations. QMA’s latest paper attempts to separate what we already knew, what we didn’t know, and what we should know about Emerging Markets economies and their outlook, as well as some insights on how quantitative strategies can effectively capture return dynamics in the current market environment.
Many employees fear they might fall short of reaching a sufficient amount of savings to provide a source of sustainable income throughout retirement. We explore the primary risks plan participants face at different stages of their retirement planning —accumulation risk, sequence of returns risk, and inflation risk. Any of which could potentially lead to a shortfall in retirement assets. Prudential’s Day One Funds are designed with this in mind and are based on extensive research and analysis of participants in defined contribution plans serviced by Prudential Retirement.
The retirement of Baby Boomers is having a significant impact on the U.S. economy. QMA Insights: Talking ‘Bout My Generation is the first in a series of pieces that will explore this dynamic, illustrating how such a large change in work force personnel may be distorting wage growth. To help initiate conversations about QMA’s asset allocation capabilities, the argument author Ed Keon makes in this piece shed light on how we use our insights into how macro-economic factors drive returns – especially when our views are different than what the consensus expects – to produce attractive investment performance.
Investors had to ask themselves, is this decline the beginning of something worse? Should we all sell and seek safety, stay the course or buy the dip? Ed Keon discusses a framework developed at QMA that helps address these questions which we call RSVP.
Market Outlook & ReviewsMarket Reviews & Outlooks
QMA provides its economic and investment outlook for the first quarter. We believe that after several years of slowing growth, 2017 looks to end the deceleration trend, as the US once again becomes the lead driver of global economic activity. Donald Trump’s US presidential victory and promises of pro-growth policies are likely a game changer in that, at least in the near term, they finally break the economy out of its “lower for longer” rut.
QMA provides its economic and investment outlook for the fourth quarter. We believe the world’s developed economies will probably remain lackluster. Worldwide, real growth is unlikely to exceed 3%, far from the pre-crisis norm of 4-5%. Three theories have been advanced to explain the economy’s anemic performance. The secular stagnation thesis blames an excess of savings and a dearth of investment. A second explanation attributes it to the financial crisis, and a third points to a slower rate of technological innovation.
QMA’s Asset Allocation Team provides their economic and investment outlook for the third quarter. The June 23 Brexit vote in the UK delivered a shock to capital markets and increased downside risks to the global economy. While this may cause a UK recession, we believe it is unlikely to result in a global downturn. The Eurozone economy will likely suffer some economic contagion, but should avoid recession given the reasonable momentum it had before the referendum. The United States should be well-insulated from the economic impact of Brexit, but some slowing could occur if the US dollar were to appreciate measurably.
QMA’s Asset Allocation Team provides their economic and investment outlook for the second quarter. Global economic growth is likely to remain sluggish as it has been over the past few years, rather than breakout into a more robust expansion. Although economic data in the US stumbled at the start of the year, putting jittery markets into panic mode, we believe a recession in the United States is still unlikely in 2016.
Recent market volatility in the New Year has investors closely watching China, oil prices, and slowing global growth for signs that the other shoe might drop. Looking at events through our RSVP Framework, we conclude that the odds of a bear market are still low and that the current market decline is more likely a nasty correction in the context of a continued bull market.
Asset Allocation Portfolio Manager Ed Campbell provides QMA’s outlook. Global growth has been sluggish and slowing for the past several years and it's unlikely to improve in 2016. We approach investment strategy cautiously at the turn of the year--neutral stocks over bonds--but we do not expect a bear market.
The Baby Boom phenomenon started almost 70 years ago, and it has been widely discussed for half a century. What might be less widely appreciated, however, is the influence the aging population likely has had on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The latest in our "Turbulent Teens" white paper series, "The Turbulent Teens at Halftime: Will Low Rates and Slower Growth Continue?" Ed Keon explores the role that Baby Boomers might be having on the economic environment now and for the next several years. This piece examines how older hands, earning a greater share of income and wealth, are changing investing and spending habits in the US and most of the developed world.
Asset Allocation Portfolio Manager Ed Campbell provides QMA’s outlook. The global economy continues to grow very slowly compared to its pre-crisis trend, and conditions have clearly weakened since the start of the year, with no sign of a reversal as of yet. Investor anxiety has been focused on doubts about the sustainability of the global economic expansion, due mainly to a structural slowdown in emerging market economies.
We are sticking with our bullish macro view in 2014, but being bullish does not mean we are complacent. All bull markets end. In our latest "Turbulent Teens" white paper, we attempt to look beyond the present to assess what might lie a few years down the road, investigating the question: What might cause the next bear market? We think the two most likely causes of the next bear market are a burst in inflation and/or a sudden tightening of monetary policy, and we consider whether or not these might trigger a bear market
Are factor exposures or informed stock picks more effective in driving outperformance? Quantitative investors have been criticized for being “closet indexers” because they tend to form broadly diversified portfolios that gain exposure to factors and aim for consistent excess returns. We suggest that a more interesting question is whether fundamental managers that outperform are “closet quants.” We find, on average, successful fundamental managers with the largest exposure to Fama-French factors outperform successful fundamental managers with more idiosyncratic returns, both in subsequent one year excess returns and in the probability of beating their benchmarks during the next year. This is the case for the entire universe of US managers based on eVestment and CRSP data, and separately for large cap and non-large cap strategies. If investors are seeking consistent excess returns, perhaps the best question is why choose a closet quant fund, i.e., factor-based fundamental, when you can have the real thing, an actual quant fund?
(Journal of Investment Management, Third Quarter 2014) We investigate whether large stock price changes are associated with short-term reversals or momentum, conditional on the issuance of analyst price target or earnings forecast revisions immediately following these price changes. Our study provides evidence that prices of stocks exhibit momentum when analysts issue revisions after large price shocks, and suggests that the initial price changes were indeed based on new information. In contrast, when price changes are not followed by immediate analyst revisions, we document short-term reversals, indicating that the initial price shocks were likely caused by liquidity or noise traders. A trading strategy that is based on the direction of the price change and the existence of analyst revisions in the same direction earns significant abnormal monthly returns (over 1%).
(Journal of Asset Management, January 2014) We present a model of expected returns when assets have different betas in up and down markets. Our model provides a useful perspective on what systematic risks are and how they are priced. Empirical evidence shows that contemporaneous stock returns are strongly correlated with downside betas, but weakly correlated with upside betas.
(Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2012)This study examines the immediate and delayed market responses to revisions in analyst forecasts of earnings, target prices, and recommendations. Consistent with prior literature, revisions in earnings forecasts are positively and significantly associated with short-term market returns around the revisions. However, we show that short-term market returns around target price revisions and recommendation changes are even stronger. We also find superior future performance (return drift) for portfolios that use information from all three types of revisions to those using information from only one of the three types of revisions.
(Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2008)An alpha indicator can lose its efficacy if too many investors use it in their trading decisions. Thus, a robust alpha factor model should consider how much of the information in a signal may already be reflected in stock prices.
(The Journal of Investing, Spring 2007) In a well-diversified portfolio, relaxing the long-only constraint should not increase the downside risk of portfolio alphas. This is likely even if the underlying stock selection strategy has a bias toward stocks with negatively skewed returns.
(Financial Analysts Journal, May/June 2004) Not all insider sales are the same. The percentage of shares owned by insiders is useful for predicting future returns following insider purchases.
(Journal of Investment Management, Fall 2003) All enhanced managers control tracking error by diversifying and controlling factors exposures. Once these variables are controlled, the excess returns of these managers have remarkably low correlations, even among those following seemingly similar strategies.
(Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter 2003) Might investor overconfidence systematically bias stock prices and create investment opportunities across different countries and different cultures? Valuation theory is used to suggest where such biases are most likely to occur.
(Financial Analysts Journal, March/April 2003) Though recent research regarding trading volume suggests the existence of an exploitable deviation from market efficiency, we show that, after earnings-related news and a stock's growth rate have been controlled for, the interaction between momentum and volume largely disappears.
(Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 1999) A probe of the consequences of behavioral biases in the context of valuation theory.
In a world where alpha can seem scarce, active small-cap managers continue to outperform their benchmarks at an impressive clip. But why? Investors have a general sense small caps are riskier and less efficient, but how or if these characteristics contribute to more alpha opportunities remains unclear. At QMA, we think it’s critical to understand the sources of returns so that you can improve your chances of capturing them repeatedly. So we recently studied our own small-cap strategy and found that capturing alpha in small caps isn’t mysterious. It is largely the result of pervasive inefficiencies that create more pronounced mispricings that managers can regularly exploit, provided they have the skill and discipline to harvest it.
Since the wake of the financial crisis of 2008/2009, the funded statuses of public and private defined benefit plans continue to struggle. With limited capacity to absorb further capital losses, plan providers are seeking innovative solutions that manage drawdown risk and improve the health of their plans. QMA’s US Market Participation Strategy—with its asymmetrical return profile and low correlation to other growth assets—provides an effective solution for addressing drawdown risk concerns and minimizing surplus volatility (while still seeking long term returns). By incorporating MPS in their growth assets bucket, plan sponsors have the potential to optimize the trade-off between improving funded status during normal markets and minimizing surplus volatility during equity bear markets.
Equity returns on international markets are driven by two different sources: systematic factors and idiosyncratic risk. In the pursuit of these sources of alpha, investment managers generally employ one of the following approaches: (1) bottom-up (idiosyncratic risk), (2) top-down (systematic factors), or (3) a blend of the two. We will describe how a bottom-up, quantitative investment process may be well suited to deliver consistent positive excess returns in international equity markets by focusing on two key elements of the investment process: a) a stock selection model that captures the long-term drivers of future returns via firm fundamentals, and b) the use of rankings generated by that stock selection model to construct portfolios that seek to deliver predictable alpha and beta returns. We will also discuss the behavioral biases that can affect security prices in international equity markets and how a sector based, adaptive weighting model to capture and exploit these biases can be effective. We believe such an approach—focused on providing stable, neutral exposures to systematic factors along with consistent exposures to idiosyncratic risk that delivers alpha—provides investors with an effective way to exploit persistent market mispricing.
Real assets have found a place in the strategic asset allocation mix of most institutional investors and can play many roles in a diversified portfolio, including total return potential, diversification from low correlations, and inflation sensitivity. As QMA's Real Assets strategy nears its five year track record in December, we wanted to highlight the asset class and the different implementation options.
As one of the most mispriced asset classes, emerging markets small cap provides an abundant source of alpha for investment managers with the skill and resources to unlock the opportunity. In addition to the beta return that comes from exposure to emerging markets small cap, active managers have an opportunity to capture alpha above market returns by taking advantage of greater idiosyncratic risk in the small cap segment to overweight select securities that demonstrate particular promise. An active, systematic stock selection approach based on fundamental measures can rigorously and consistently evaluate the entire universe. This capability results in additional return opportunities that could be missed by managers relying solely on research insights for a small subset of companies.
Portfolio Manager Ed Keon presents a case for active asset allocation, exploring the evolving approaches and explaining why and how we think active asset allocation can add value for investors. We think that active asset allocation can offer some investors a more attractive overall portfolio option than a static or formulaic approach. We suggest that a strategy which focuses on trying to avoid big losses while harvesting the high average real returns of risky assets might provide a better combination of return and risk than a static 60% stocks, 40% bonds portfolio, and we present some evidence to support this contention.
We discuss three trends revealing that the primary source of emerging markets equities’ total return has been shifting from country and sector selection towards stock selection. Bottom-up stock selection is at least as important in exploiting inefficiencies within emerging markets equities and in driving consistent performance over the long term.
Asset Allocation Portfolio Manager Ed Campbell provides QMA's first quarter 2017 outlook for the global economy and markets.
Gavin Smith, Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the US Core Equity team, describes how short selling seeks to allow investors to find alpha in often overlooked places, explains the three main categories of shorting-enabled equity products, and highlights the benefits of a systematic quantitative process.
Can emerging markets still deliver value for investors? Watch QMA’s Rodolfo Martell, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager & Strategist, describe his firm’s approach to finding alpha in today’s volatile emerging markets.
Asset Allocation Portfolio Manager Ed Campbell provides QMA's third quarter 2016 outlook for the global economy and markets.
Asset Allocation Portfolio Manager Ed Campbell provides QMA's first quarter 2016 outlook for the global economy and markets.
Being a quant is much more than just data and crunching numbers, it’s about using finance to find opportunities. Learn more about this fundamentally-driven, systematic process from the people behind it.
Investors had to ask themselves, is this decline the begining of something worse? Should we all sell and seek safety, stay the course or buy the dip? Ed Keon discusses a framework developed at QMA that helps address these questions which we call RSVP.